Five Big Changes That Are Transforming Our Country

The 2008 election underscored the dramatic changes that are reshaping our country.  Here are five of the biggest to keep an eye on going forward.

1. Majority-minority: Coming to a Community Near You.  From 1988 to 2008, the percent of minority voters increased from 15 to 26 percent.  And we're just getting started.  People tend to think of 2050 as the year America will become majority minority.  But it's closer than that--the latest Census projections put the tipping point dates at 2042 for the entire population and at 2023 for the population under 18.  By 2050, the US will actually be 54 percent minority.  Right now, four states and 303 counties are majority minority.  With every passing year these totals will grow, making it more and more likely the average American will either live in such a state or county or live right next to one.

2. Forget the Exurbs: Our Urbanized Future.  Remember all that fuss about the exurbs--those fast-growing suburbs on the fringe of metropolitan areas that supposedly represented the future of American home-owning?  Well, forget it.  About 80 percent of the population of large metropolitan areas still lives in the urban core (16 percent) or the close-in urbanizing suburbs (64 percent).  And as we add our next 100 million people over the next three decades (a faster rate than China), our urban tilt is just going to increase.  Indeed, about two-thirds of our growth is likely to be in just 20 “megapolitan” areas—massive urban complexes containing more than 5 million residents that center around big cities like Phoenix, Denver, Chicago and New York.  Growth is also likely to become increasingly concentrated in the close-in urbanizing surburbs due to the burgeoning numbers of single suburbanites (who don't want to live in exurbs) and the declining desirability of long commutes.  The exurban revolution is ending before it even began.

3. The Millennial Tidal Wave: The Generation That Will Change Everything about American Politics.  In 2008, voters from the Millennial generation (those born 1978 to 1996 or 2000, depending on definition) supported Barack Obama by an overwhelming 66 percent to 32 percent, providing almost 90 percent of his victory margin.  The impact of this generation will only grow in coming years, as more and more of them enter the voting pool.  In 2008, about 55 million Millennials were of voting age and roughly 48 million were citizen-eligible voters.  Between now and 2018, Millennials of voting age will be increasing by about four and half million a year.  And in 2020, the first Presidential election where all Millennials will have reached voting age, this generation will be 103 million strong, of which about 90 million will be eligible voters.  Those 90 million Millenial eligible voters will represent just under 40 percent of America’s eligible voters.  At that point, their ethos and politics is likely to dominate our society.

4. Pat Buchanan's Nightmare: A White Christian Nation No Longer.  Despite all the ink given to white evangelicals, they are not the fastest-growing religious group in the United States.  Instead, it is seculars--those without any formal religious affiliation--who have been growing fastest, especially among youth.  This, combined with race-ethnic trends, will ensure that, in very short order we will no longer be a white Christian nation.  Even today, only about 57 percent of adults are white Christians.  By 2024, that figure will be down to 45 percent.  That means that by the election of 2016 (or 2020 at the outside) we will have have ceased to be a white Christian nation.  Pat Buchanan's nightmare is about to come true.

5. Joe the Plumber and the Decline of the White Working Class.  In the World War II era, 86 percent of American adults were white working class.  That figure's been declining precipitously ever since.  In the 1988 to 2008 period alone, the white working class share of voters declined 15 percentage points, reaching just 39 percent of voters in this last election.  That figure will continue to drop as younger, more educated, more diverse cohorts replace older, less educated whiter ones.  Since white working class voters have been the bulwark of conservative politics since the Nixon era (and this election was no exception), the ongoing decline of this group creates a dilemma for conservatives.  That's the real lesson of Joe the Plumber.  It's not just that he didn't work for John McCain as a political ploy, it's that such ploys are becoming increasingly irrelevant.  Consevatives, will, in the end, have to adapt to this, which could change our politics in big ways.