Young Voters Unite

Although the numbers are still preliminary, it is safe to say that young people turned out in high levels to vote on Tuesday with at least 2.2 million more young people going to the polls than in 2004. Just how much their participation rose over 2004 is what the official number tally will tell us when it’s released in the coming weeks. CIRCLE estimates that the increase ranges anywhere from 1 to 6 percentage points. At an increase of 6 percentage points, it would be the second highest young voter turnout since 1972 (55.4%).

Over 65 percent of young voters chose President-elect Obama over McCain, creating a significant bloc of support that undeniably made an impact—particularly in those battleground states with small margins. On Tuesday, young voters made up 18 percent of all voters nationwide; in some key battleground states, they actually comprised an even higher percentage of voters. According to CNN exit polls, young voters in Indiana made up 19 percent of voters; in Virginia, they made up a full 21 percent of all voters. In both of those states, young voters favored Obama on levels comparable to those nationwide. This monolithic allegiance to one candidate is the most profound shift from previous elections. In past elections, regardless of how many young voters turned out, their votes were fairly evenly split between the Democratic and Republican candidates, which muted their impact on the race’s outcome. Reagan was the last candidate to receive a significant share of young voters’ support, garnering 59 percent in 1984.

In terms of generational differences, exit polls also captured a portrait of young voters that reflects a diverse population with shared values. Slated as the most diverse American generation yet, they coalesced around the same candidate. Young voters were the only age bloc in which a majority within all ethnicities supported Obama. In contrast, Obama won the majority of every ethnicity except white voters within the older populations.

As illustrated by their increasing levels of participation since 2004 and their active involvement throughout this election cycle, young people are clearly interested and willing to be a part of the political process. Obama embraced their enthusiasm, recruited them to work on his behalf and reaped the benefits. The question is whether the political establishment—Democratic and Republican—will learn from Obama’s success and follow his lead or whether it will continue to try to brush young people aside.