The White Working Class and the 2008 Election

This spring I published a paper with Alan Abramowitz on "The Decline of the White Working Class and the Rise of a Mass Upper Middle Class".   That paper and others covering:

• The changing face of suburbia and the growth of exurbia
• The increased political homogeneity of American communities
• The minoritization of America
• The growth of unmarried and alternative households and the decline of traditional values
• The concomitant rise of white evangelical and secular, nonobservant religious populations
• The rise of the millennial generation and the aging of the baby boomers

are included in my new book, Red, Blue and Purple America: The Future of Election Demographics.  With the book out, it's a good time for me to mark my beliefs to market.  In my paper with Abramowitz, we observed that, given the changing demographics of the US electorate, the Democrats should be able to win a solid victory in 2008 if they could bring their deficit among white working class voters down from its very high level in 2004 (23 points) to a comparative modest 10-12 points.  Does it look like the Democrats will be able to hit this this target?

It does.  Averaging Gallup and Pew data on these voters shows that a week ago, the Democrats were exactly in this range (an 11 point deficit).  And since then, despite talk of a McCain comeback, that deficit has actually fallen.  The most recent data from these organizations would put the Democrats' deficit among these voters at a mere 7 points.  If the white working class deficit holds in this range (7-12 points) through election day, the Democrats seem likely to do very, very well on November 4.

Comments

[superdestroyer]

the real question of election demographics is that the groups that vote overwhelmingly for Democrats are growing but the groups that vote Republican are shrinking relative to the overall population, then is the Republican party still have a viable future.

Of course, the conclusion is that the Republican party is not sustainable into the future. So, what political writers should really be focusing on is how is politics affect when the U.S. becomes a one party state with the Democratic party being the only relevant political party. Will national politics begin to resemble the current politics of large cities where the real election is in the Democratic Primary and the general elections are basically ignored.

[barolas]

We must realize that a one party system would be very dangerous for this country. Even though the two party system doesnot always work, a one party system is no different than a system known as Dictatorship. There has to always be two sides to every situation.

[generic viagra]

And since then, despite talk of a McCain comeback, that deficit has actually fallen.