The Battle for Pennsylvania

The McCain campaign is putting a lot of resources in Pennsylvania, on the theory that this is their best shot at turning a big 2004 blue state red and that they can't win without such a takeaway given the rest of the electoral map.  This theory may well be correct but how plausible is it that they could actually succeed in this effort.  Not very. First and most obviously, they are far behind in the polls. The Pollster.com trend average still puts their current deficit in the Keystone State at around 8 points, despite some tightening of the race in the last couple of weeks.

Second and less obviously, the GOP is fighting a demographic headwind in Pennsylvania.  Here are the key trends and groups Wlliam Frey and I identified in our recent report on The Political Geography of Pennsylvania, most of which are making life more difficult for the Republicans.

First, will the white working class maintain its level of support for the GOP?  If it does not and moves toward the Democrats, this could tilt the state from its current purple status to solid blue.  Indeed, given current demographic trends, which are steadily reducing the ranks of white working class voters, the GOP needs to not just maintain, but increase, its support among these voters to have a reasonable chance of carrying the state in 2008.

Particularly relevant to the white working class vote is the vote of whites with some college, the upwardly mobile portion of the white working class.  These voters have been moving toward the Democrats, even as their ranks have been increasing (in contrast to the rest of the white working class).  If that trend continues in 2008, the GOP’s hold on the white working class could weaken decisively.

Second, will white college-educated voters, who are steadily increasing their share of the electorate, continue their movement toward the Democrats?  If so, that would make a Democratic victory in 2008 likely and a GOP victory very difficult to engineer.

Third, will minorities, particularly Hispanics whose share of voters is rapidly growing (albeit from a small base) turn out for the Democrats?  Given their very high levels of support for the Democrats in the 2004 and 2006 elections, the greater their turnout, the better for the Democrats.  Ditto for single women and young voters, who have also been recording very high support levels for the Democrats.

In terms of regions, the fast-growing Allentown-Scranton-Reading area, where every county has trended Democratic since 1988, is perhaps the key one to watch.  The white working class--a group that in this region is trending Democratic--is actually adding voters (see Figure 4), white college-educated voters are growing rapidly and minority voters (primarily Hispanics) are burgeoning.  Within this region, the key segment to watch is the Allentown metro, third-largest in the state and primary driver of the region’s growth, both overall and among Hispanics.  Also worth watching is the far northeast corner of the region where very fast-growing Pike and Monroe counties, which have been trending Democratic, are located.  Current trends, if they continue unabated, could push this whole region solidly into the blue column in 2008 and beyond, following the trajectory of the Philadelphia suburbs, which have already arrived there.  Such a development could also tip the statewide balance decisively toward the Democrats, threatening Pennyslvania’s current purple (albeit leaning blue) status.

Running a close second, the even-faster-growing Harrisburg-York-Lancaster region will also be critical.  Similar to the Allentown region, this region is adding white working class voters (in larger numbers) and white college-educated and minority, primarily Hispanic, voters (in smaller numbers).  While the region has remained solidly Republican, there has been a trend toward the Democrats since 1988, possibly linked to the increasing numbers of minority and white college-educated voters.  This trend, as shown on Map 5, is in the eastern part of the region and is particularly strong in the Lancaster metro.  But it also includes the very fast growing York-Hanover metro, as well as the Lebanon metro and the populous parts of the Harrisburg-Carlisle metro (Dauphin and Cumberland counties).   The GOP needs to stop this trend and, ideally, move it back in the other direction to have a reasonable chance of carrying the state in 2008 and beyond.  Conversely, if the pro-Democratic trend continues and the parties become more closely-matched within the region, the Republicans’ ability to win statewide races would be severely compromised.

Also worth watching is the Philadelphia suburbs, whose continued growth is driven by increases in white college graduates and minorities.  This region has trended the most sharply toward the Democrats since 1988, a trend which may well continue in 2008 given these demographic changes.  Out west, in Allegheny County and the declining Pittsburgh suburbs-Erie region (which nevertheless shows strong growth among white college graduates), the trend has been toward the GOP since 1988.  Watch to see if the reddening trend continues in this election, which, given opposing trends in the eastern part of the state, is vital to the GOP’s chances.  But if these western regions-especially their white working class voters--start moving back in the Democratic direction, it could be a signal that Pennsylvania is changing its political colors from purple to blue.

So  how are these trends and groups working out in this campaign?  A just-released Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania provides some breakouts that allow us to assess this.  In terms of the white working class, Obama is running only a 2 point deficit, 8 points better than Kerry ran in 2004.

The difference is even starker on white college graduates.  In 2004, Kerry lost this group by 12 points.  This year Obama is actually ahead among this group by 4 points.

Looking at regions, we idenfied the fast-growing Allentown-Scranton-Reading or northeast region as perhaps the key region to watch.  In 2004, Kerry lost this area by a single point; this year, Obama is ahead by 20 points in the area.  The populous Philadelphia suburbs are also crucial.  Here, Obama is also up by 12 points, 5 points better than Kerry ran in 2004.

None of this sounds very promising for John McCain.  It looks like the underlying trends that have been moving Pennsylvania toward the Democrats are likely to continue in this election.

Comments

[nancyb]

I think this is great information but forgive me if I am wary of polls. I think, especially in this election, people may say one thing and do another. Additionally, especially with the younger vote, this may be their first time voting. I just don't feel we can rely on them to actually vote. It's one thing to register, another to vote. Polls, I believe, can actually impact on people NOT voting. If they believe their candidate is doing well, they might not see the purpose in voting. And, is there any information on the right wing conservatives who came out in force at the last election?