Pennsylvania: Not Another Rust Belt State

With the Democratic primary coming up on Tuesday, the media is awash in stories about Pennsylvania, trying to discern which way its voters will go on Tuesday, which way they will go in November and, of course, just how they bitter they actually are about conditions in the state.  Most of these stories, however, tend to be rather superficial, based on a few voter interviews or a look around a particular town.  Conspicuously lacking is a comprehensive look at the state's electorate that describes how demographic and geographic trends have reshaped Pennsylvania's politics over the last two decades and relates these trends to this year's elections. 

Together with William Frey, I have just published a very detailed report that does exactly that.  The report, The Political Geography of Pennsylvania: Not Another Rust Belt State, is the first of 10 reports on 2008 election "purple" states that Frey and I will produce for the Brookings Metropolitan Policy program.

Here are some of the key findings from the report:

A. Pennsylvania is becoming a  demographic “bridge” between Midwestern states like Ohio and other Northeastern states like New Jersey, as its new growth is tied to urban coastal regions.   While often classed as a so-called “rustbelt” state its eastern and south central regions  are increasingly becoming part of the nation’s Northeast Corridor, with new growth and demographic profiles that warrant attention in upcoming election.

B. Eligible voter populations indicate a state in transition, where minorities, especially Hispanics, and white college graduates are increasingly important, but where white working class voters continue to play a central role.  While white working class voters continue to decline as a share of voters and are  less likely to work in manufacturing and goods production, they  are still a critical segment of voters, including in the fast-growing Harrisburg and Allentown regions where their absolute numbers are actually increasing.

C.  Recent Democratic victories in Pennsylvania have featured strong support from groups like minorities, single women and the young, but have also benefited from relatively strong support among the white working class, especially among its upwardly mobile segment that has some college education.  Compared to 1988, both the latter group and white college graduates have increased their support for Democrats. And both groups have increased their share of voters over the time period.

D.  Political shifts in Pennsylvania since 1988 have seen the growing eastern part of the state swing toward the Democrats, which has produced four straight Presidential victories for that party.  The swing has been sharpest in the Philadelphia suburbs, but has also been strong in the Allentown region and even affected the pro-Republican Harrisburg region. Countering this swing, the declining western part of the state has been moving toward the GOP.

E. Key trends and groups to watch in 2008 include the white working class, where the GOP needs to not just maintain, but increase, its support; whites with some college, who are growing, unlike the rest of the white working class, and have been moving toward the Democrats; white college graduates, who are rapidly growing and have also been moving toward the Democrats; and Hispanics, who have been driving the growth of the minority vote.  These trends could have their strongest impact in the fast-growing Allentown region, which may move solidly into the blue column in 2008 and beyond, following the trajectory of the Philadelphia suburbs.  The even-faster-growing Harrisburg region remains a GOP firewall, but the same trends could make that region more closely contested in 2008. 

Read the full report to get much more detail in all these areas and to browse the extensive tables, charts and maps.